Has Donald Trump's sharp rebuke of Israel in his October 23 Time Magazine interview fundamentally changed the calculus in the Middle East? His comments immediately sparked two opposing views: for some, his position represents the clear demarcation of a genuine shift in US foreign policy; for others, it is nothing more than a political ploy designed to claw back credibility lost by the US during two years of Israeli genocide in Gaza.

 Regarding the end of the recent Gaza genocide, Trump claimed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “had to stop because the world was going to stop him,” adding, “you know, I could see what was happening ... And Israel was becoming very unpopular.” With these words, Trump signaled his view that the systematic extermination of Palestinians in Gaza had pushed Israel to an inevitable point of isolation that even the US could no longer indefinitely hold back.

 This is the crux of his message, repeated in his stark warning to Netanyahu: “Bibi, you can't fight the world ... The world's against you. And Israel is a very small place compared to the world.” This may appear to be an obvious fact, yet considering the history of US — and, by extension, Western — blind support, Israel has always felt much larger than its own size. Indeed, Israel’s perceived power has historically been defined by the unconditional backing of the United States.

 But, according to Trump’s claim, the US no longer perceives itself as the unconditional vanguard for Israel. He points to a new global power dynamic, noting, “There are a lot of powers out there, okay, powers outside of the region,” whose influence has made Washington's traditional protective role unsustainable. This newfound realization is most evident when Trump addresses Israel’s desire to illegally annex the occupied Palestinian West Bank. He is now ready to take action, using unprecedented language: The annexation “won't happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries. It will not happen. Israel would lose all of its support from the United States if that happened.”

 Such a phrase is unprecedented in the history of US-Israeli relations. Yet, this defiance could easily be dismissed as Trumpian showmanship — bold statements that rarely translate into coherent policy. During his second term, Trump called for an end to the war but did little to stop it, expressing sympathy toward Gazans while still supplying Israel with weapons. His contradictions make it difficult to distinguish conviction from performance.

 The significance of Trump’s unprecedented warning is amplified by the sheer timing. The Time interview was made available on the same day that the Israeli parliament (Knesset) approved two bills that would apply Israeli law to the occupied West Bank, paving the way for the full, illegal annexation of the occupied territory. This provocative vote occurred while US Vice-President JD Vance was still in Tel Aviv. On his way out of the country, Vance launched a virulent attack on the Israeli government, describing the vote as “weird” and “a very stupid political stunt,” one which he took as an “insult.”

 Those cautious of any supposed US shift are justified in their cynicism. There is little evidence that Washington is changing course. The unconditional support throughout the genocide is irrefutable proof of its commitment to Israel. The long trajectory of US backing, from before Israel’s founding to today, strongly suggests that a sudden pivot is highly unlikely. So, if this is not a fundamental shift, what is actually happening here?

 Though the “unbreakable bond” remains, the balance of power has shifted. Israel has alternated between being the privileged client state and, through its lobby, the driver of the regional agenda. The war exposed Israel’s weaknesses and restored the old dynamic — the US as savior, dictating priorities. Beyond the annual $3.8 billion in military aid, Washington approved an additional $26 billion to sustain Israel’s economy and wars. When Israel failed to meet its military goals in Gaza, the US intervened with the 'Gaza deal', producing a shaky ceasefire that let Israel pursue its objectives by other means.

The result is a reversal of roles: Trump became more popular in Israel than Netanyahu, resurrecting the image of the US as the decisive power. The apparent clash between the two countries is less about values than about control — who steers Israel’s ship, Tel Aviv or Washington. The strong American rhetoric suggests awareness of its renewed leverage, but leverage alone is not policy.

 This remains far from a genuine change of course. The US insists on managing the so-called Israeli-Palestinian conflict through its own political priorities, fundamentally aligned with Israel’s. By ignoring international law — the only source of balance and objectivity — Washington ensures that the roadmap to the region’s future, despite occasional disagreements, remains entirely in US-Israeli hands..

 Such policies will fail to bring peace or justice and will inevitably reignite the same cycle of Israeli violence. While bombing has temporarily slowed in Gaza, violence is already surging in the occupied West Bank.

 A just and lasting peace cannot be wrought through the whims of US administrations, through endless wars, or through uncommitted statements about non-annexation. True peace requires genuine accountability, sustained international pressure, sanctions, and the rigorous enforcement of international law. Only when the world continues to fight Netanyahu — and the self-destructive policies he represents — will a new genocide be averted and a just peace finally be achieved.

- Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of six books. His forthcoming book, ‘Before the Flood,’ will be published by Seven Stories Press. His other books include ‘Our Vision for Liberation’, ‘My Father was a Freedom Fighter’ and ‘The Last Earth’. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA). His website is www.ramzybaroud.net

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