BANGKOK, Thailand -- Thaksin Shinawatra enters 2025 as purportedly the most powerful politician in Thailand, the billionaire who could not be stopped even after two coups and juntas, 15 years in self-exile, and a stack of prison sentences against him.

Mr. Thaksin is now so larger-than-life that many allege he manipulates Thailand's government through his seemingly timid daughter Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 38, who was elected by Parliament in August and appears to eagerly agree with his advice.

Mr. Thaksin, a two-time ex-prime minister who currently holds no political office, is this year's man to watch. 

Unfortunately, he began 2025 grappling with allegations that he voiced racist views.

"African people, who have black skin and flat noses that make it difficult to breathe, are hired for millions of baht [Thai currency] to be models," Mr. Thaksin said during a campaign rally in Chiang Rai city on January 6.

"Thai people look much better," Mr. Thaksin, 75, said. "There is no need for [our people to get] nose, jaw, or breast augmentation.

"It is time to encourage more Thais, including those from ethnic groups like the Karen, who possess natural beauty, to become international models," Mr. Thaksin said.

"To embrace racism and insult African people for their skin color and physical attributes is going too far," warned a Bangkok Post editorial on Jan. 8 headlined: "No Excuse For Racist Slurs."

A former foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, said in an interview, "The international community in general, and the African community in particular, need to react."

Mr. Thaksin's statements "caused a lot of anger on Thai social media, to the point that they felt that it damaged the country's image," Wanwichit Boonprong, a Rangsit University political science lecturer, said in an interview.

Thai media describe Mr. Thaksin as the "de facto boss of the Pheu Thai Party" which is officially led by his daughter atop an uneasy ruling coalition which includes pro-military parties.

However, if the unelected Mr. Thaksin is found directing or playing a leadership role in the political party and government, then he and the party he founded, and his prime ministerial daughter, could all be disqualified.

"He owns the Pheu Thai Party, the main coalition party," Mr. Kasit said.

"His daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the leader of the Pheu Thai Party and the current prime minister of Thailand. He handpicked her. He therefore practically runs the government," Mr. Kasit said.

Allegations of Mr. Thaksin manipulating his daughter swirl around both politicians and could evolve, if proven, into a case against him if the politically powerful Election Commission and Constitutional Court agree to examine the charges.

Mr. Thaksin, who Forbes magazine estimated was worth $2.1 billion in April, and Ms. Paetongtarn deny allowing family ties to influence Thailand's politics.

“I am my dad’s daughter, always and forever, but I have my own decisions,” she said.

"In the past, I stood in front of her and she was behind me,” Mr. Thaksin said.

"Today she stands in front of me, and I am in the back."

After defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, President-elect Donald Trump told Ms. Paetongtarn in a November video call: "Anything I can do, you let me know." 

Buddhist-majority Thailand is a U.S. treaty ally. Mr. Thaksin's relations with Washington ran deep when he was in power.

During Mr. Thaksin's 2001-06 prime ministry, President George W. Bush welcomed him to the White House after Bangkok assisted Washington in its international "war on terror."

"Thailand was one of at least 54 nations to participate in the CIA’s program of 'extraordinary rendition' wherein at least 136 terror suspects were sent to 'black sites' for interrogation and torture by Americans," wrote Benjamin Zawacki, Bangkok-based American author of "Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the U.S. and a Rising China".

"Thailand was one of eight nations to host at least one such site," Mr. Zawacki said.

"Now that Thaksin Shinawatra appears actively back in Thai politics, it is demoralizing to look back at Thailand's wasted time and opportunities," columnist Thitinan Pongsudhirak said in December.

"The military-backed governments in 2014-23 moved Thailand closer to China, as Bangkok was alienated from Western democracies as well as Japan. This period marked Thailand's lowest international standing.

"The more Thailand turns autocratic, the more its ruling elites will have to rely on China for legitimacy and support," Mr. Thitinan wrote.

Mr. Thaksin's views on China include popular concerns about Beijing's inexpensive exports flooding Thailand's domestic market, causing Thai manufacturers to lose out.

“The world is moving towards protectionism, and we must look at ways to do that too," Mr. Thaksin said in August.

"We don’t hate Chinese products, but it is also about protecting our businesses."

Despite not being an elected official and warned by opponents not to meddle in Thailand's politics, Mr. Thaksin has been meeting the country's politicians plus leaders of neighboring countries including Cambodia and Malaysia.

Mr. Thaksin and his supporters describe his dealings as "personal" and not official politicking, even if the results are potentially influential.

For example, Mr. Thaksin met Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in December aboard a yacht reportedly anchored on the Thai-Malaysian maritime border.

"We are pleased to have Thaksin on board as an informal adviser," Mr. Anwar said, praising "Thaksin’s unparalleled network of relationships across the region, coupled with his unique expertise.

“For decades, Thaksin and I have shared the belief that Malaysia and Thailand could accomplish much more together, not only for our respective nations but for the region as a whole," Mr. Anwar wrote on the media platform X.

Their interests include upgrading infrastructure linking Thailand and Malaysia with the rest of Southeast Asia to efficiently exploit its resources and low-wage labor.

The two leaders were expected to also discuss Malay-Thai Islamist separatists who have been fighting for autonomy or independence for decades in Muslim-majority southern Thailand, resulting in more than 7,000 people killed on all sides this century.

Many of Mr. Thaksin's personal problems began in 2001 when he burst into politics as a former police official who had become a telecommunications tycoon.

He apparently appeared too vulgar and nouveau riche to Thailand's conservatives, royalists, military, and old money.

Mr. Thaksin then did what the elite didn't, by offering financial assistance to the country's poor through cheap loans, scholarships, free health care, and other populist policies.

After his reelection in a 2005 landslide, conservatives panicked, charged him with alleged corruption, and supported the 2006 military coup against him. In 2008, Mr. Thaksin fled.

While in self-exile, Mr. Thaksin boosted his sister Yingluck Shinawatra to be elected in 2011 as Thailand's first female prime minister.

Ms. Yingluck was widely understood to be his pliant political proxy.

Facing the same enemies, her government was ousted by a 2014 military coup. 

Ms. Yingluck, 57, is currently in self-exile overseas hoping to return in the spring, without having to serve a five-year prison sentence for mismanagement of expensive government-run rice stockpiles and subsidies.

Mr. Thaksin's dynastic political party changed its name several times but tried to keep a family member as prime minister.

Mr. Thaksin's brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat briefly became prime minister in 2008 until disqualified by the Constitutional Court because a party executive was buying votes.

Mr. Thaksin voluntarily returned to Thailand in 2023.

King Vajiralongkorn reduced Mr. Thaksin's combined eight-year prison sentences, for financial corruption and related convictions, to a one-year sentence.  Mr. Thaksin served that in a hospital for six months until February 2024 plus six months more on parole.

Today his daughter Prime Minister Paetongtarn supports her father's laissez faire capitalist policies, international investment invitations, and emphasis on tourism, trade, and technology.

Ms. Paetongtarn, a former business executive and married mother of two children, received a master’s degree in international hotel management from Surrey University in England.  She worked in her family's businesses, including real estate.

She had never held a government position before becoming prime minister.

She declared assets totaling more than US$ 400 million, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) announced on Jan. 3.

Her holdings include real estate in London and Thailand, plus 23 luxury vehicles such as a Bentley and Rolls-Royce, gold bars, 217 luxury bags, 75 luxury wristwatches, and other goods.

"Her strength is being Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter, but her weakness is being Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter," the political science lecturer Mr. Wanwichit said.

Her leadership style appears "lacking in preparation and sharpness," he said.

Thailand's worried royalists, politicized military, and wealthy conservatives allowed Mr. Thaksin to return and be politically rehabilitated apparently to stop a bigger threat requiring his unique abilities.

"Thaksin is the most powerful politician, but his power is greater than a normal politician because he exerts influence over the police and possesses enormous economic clout," Paul Chambers, a lecturer in Southeast Asian studies at Naresuan University, said in an interview.

"His clout derives from the ruling Pheu Thai Party, extreme influence in the police, close associations with Thailand’s leading tycoons, personal wealth, and most importantly acquiescence from the monarch, though that could change if Thaksin is seen as going too far," Mr. Chambers said.

The establishment apparently hopes to use Mr. Thaksin to help them stop an upcoming, idealistic, confrontational politician Pita Limjaroenrat and his People's Party which grew out of Mr. Pita's court-dissolved Move Forward Party.

"The progressive People’s Party has become the new change actor for Thailand, while Thaksin is increasingly being perceived by Thais as part of the old order," Mr. Chambers said.

The polite, selfie-promoting Mr. Pita spectacularly crashed and burned in Parliament last year after repeatedly boasting he was entitled to become prime minister because he won 38 percent of a national election.

Parliament, including its military-appointed Senate, voted him down resulting in Mr. Pita's banishment to the opposition.

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Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978 and winner of Columbia University's Foreign Correspondents' Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available  at https://asia-correspondent.tumblr.com