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Given the various "errors" and so forth in the polls, try on the following:
Professor Sam Wang's map with 311 Kerry votes to Bush 227, assumed Kerry with a Popular vote lead over Bush.
It also shows FLorida, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio going to Bush.
Arkansas is not shown going to Bush, but is the "pinkest" state.
Well, we know the exit polls were wrong in some details.
How about this:
Bush led Kerry in the Popular vote.
But Kerry carried all the above states, plus Arkansas.
Bush's lead is about a million votes, give or take 900,000 up from that, or 240,000 down from that million.
Kerry carries all of his current states, plus:
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Florida
Arkansas.
That would put Kerry at 252 + 20 (OH) + IA (7) + NM (5) + NV (5) + FL (27) + AR (6) Electoral Votes = 322 Electoral Votes for Kerry, with Bush at a circa one million vote Popular lead.
This fits much better with the idea that Bush had a circa one million Popular vote lead. Kerry could have carried all those states, and still have been considerably behind Bush in the Popular vote.
Ohio is being debated, as is NV. Questions are also raised about FL. NM may be under discussion since new postings this a.m, re: judge race/presidential race variances. No questions so far re: IA or AR, except that AR is going to delay cetifications due to "statistical anomalies" and an election day power failure, and IA was a slow count due to malfunctions and power failures there.
How's that for getting it close.
Another possibility:
Kerry gets OH, but nothing else. Then glitches are found all over the place that drop Bush's Nationwide Popular vote lead by over a million votes. Kerry thus gets 272 Electoral votes, Bush drops to 1.9 million Popular vote lead.
Or this:
Kerry doesn't get OH, but gets NV and NM as the result of new recounts, etc. Then new data out of South FL confuses the issue yet again, as Black box voting.org finds poll tapes showing irregularities enough to turn it around.--if they can get local judges to do the proper follow-ups before the deadlines pass.
Kerry gets 10 more Electoral votes from NV and NM, bringing him to 262, with Florida up in the air going into the Electors voting.
Then some dramatic new data comes out of Ohio, say, 100,000 new Kerry votes, and things are up in the air again. OH is still not in Kerry's column, but it's right on the edge, given other things that have been found, which greatly had eaten into Bush's margin, putting him at barely over 100,000 votes. Ohio becomes close enough that automatic recount is called for. What would Electors do? With Bush at a Popular vote lead, how much that lead is, could make a difference.
Then findings show his margin in "red" states was "padded" and he drops by a million votes, to just around 1 million, from where he is now.
And still dropping up until time for the Electors to vote. Waiting for OH and FL, and Popular vote lead DROPPING.
Just some random thoughts.
Best,
Max Standridge
Professor Sam Wang's map with 311 Kerry votes to Bush 227, assumed Kerry with a Popular vote lead over Bush.
It also shows FLorida, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio going to Bush.
Arkansas is not shown going to Bush, but is the "pinkest" state.
Well, we know the exit polls were wrong in some details.
How about this:
Bush led Kerry in the Popular vote.
But Kerry carried all the above states, plus Arkansas.
Bush's lead is about a million votes, give or take 900,000 up from that, or 240,000 down from that million.
Kerry carries all of his current states, plus:
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico
Nevada
Florida
Arkansas.
That would put Kerry at 252 + 20 (OH) + IA (7) + NM (5) + NV (5) + FL (27) + AR (6) Electoral Votes = 322 Electoral Votes for Kerry, with Bush at a circa one million vote Popular lead.
This fits much better with the idea that Bush had a circa one million Popular vote lead. Kerry could have carried all those states, and still have been considerably behind Bush in the Popular vote.
Ohio is being debated, as is NV. Questions are also raised about FL. NM may be under discussion since new postings this a.m, re: judge race/presidential race variances. No questions so far re: IA or AR, except that AR is going to delay cetifications due to "statistical anomalies" and an election day power failure, and IA was a slow count due to malfunctions and power failures there.
How's that for getting it close.
Another possibility:
Kerry gets OH, but nothing else. Then glitches are found all over the place that drop Bush's Nationwide Popular vote lead by over a million votes. Kerry thus gets 272 Electoral votes, Bush drops to 1.9 million Popular vote lead.
Or this:
Kerry doesn't get OH, but gets NV and NM as the result of new recounts, etc. Then new data out of South FL confuses the issue yet again, as Black box voting.org finds poll tapes showing irregularities enough to turn it around.--if they can get local judges to do the proper follow-ups before the deadlines pass.
Kerry gets 10 more Electoral votes from NV and NM, bringing him to 262, with Florida up in the air going into the Electors voting.
Then some dramatic new data comes out of Ohio, say, 100,000 new Kerry votes, and things are up in the air again. OH is still not in Kerry's column, but it's right on the edge, given other things that have been found, which greatly had eaten into Bush's margin, putting him at barely over 100,000 votes. Ohio becomes close enough that automatic recount is called for. What would Electors do? With Bush at a Popular vote lead, how much that lead is, could make a difference.
Then findings show his margin in "red" states was "padded" and he drops by a million votes, to just around 1 million, from where he is now.
And still dropping up until time for the Electors to vote. Waiting for OH and FL, and Popular vote lead DROPPING.
Just some random thoughts.
Best,
Max Standridge